Premier League Golden Boot: Top 20 players, according to expected goals

Premier League Golden Boot: Top 20 players, according to expected goals
The 2018/19 Premier League has come to an end and what a season it turned out to be with three stars sharing the prestigious Golden Boot.Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang all scored 22 times across the campaign so they all get a trophy to take home.7

Liverpool stars Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah share a Golden Boot

But were they really the best strikers, according to statistics? Using UnderStat.com’s expected goals model, we’ve seen that Manchester City were rightly crowned champions, pipping Liverpool to the title by just one point.Here at talkSPORT.com were always keeping an eye onUnderstat.com to see how strikers are performing based on their xG season stats.And they make for some interesting reading, pointing out the fact that perhaps some of the league’s most lethal marksman should have found the net more.

What is expected goals?

• Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
• Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
• The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
• The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

20. Marcus Rashford (Manchester United)Games played: 33Goals scored: 10Expected goal tally: 11.8119. Alexandre Lacazette (Arsenal)Games played: 35Goals scored: 13Expected goal tally: 12.0318. Gylfi Sigurdsson (Everton)Games played: 38Goals scored: 13Expected goal tally: 12.127

Sigurdsson has netted 13 times this season

17. Eden Hazard (Chelsea)Games played: 37Goals scored: 15Expected goal tally: 11.5716. Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)Games played: 29Goals scored: 7Expected goal tally: 12.6215. Romelu Lukaku (Manchester United)Games played: 32Goals scored: 12Expected goal tally: 13.117

According to the stats, Lukaku should have netted one more goal

14. Ashley Barnes (Burnley)Games played: 37Goals scored: 12Expected goal tally: 13.2813. Joshua King (Bournemouth)Games played: 35Goals scored: 12Expected goal tally: 13.5512. Roberto Firmino (Liverpool)Games played: 34Goals scored: 12Expected goal tally: 13.747

Firmino netted 12 goals this season

11. Raul Jimenez (Wolverhampton Wanderers)Games played: 38Goals scored: 13Expected goal tally: 14.2710. Aleksandar Mitrovic (Fulham)Games played: 37Goals scored: 11Expected goal tally: 15.459. Paul Pogba (Manchester United)Games played: 35Goals scored:13Expected goal tally: 15.887

Pogba should have scored more goals according to the xG stats

8. Raheem Sterling (Manchester City)Games played: 34Goals scored: 17Expected goal tally: 15.917. Callum Wilson (Bournemouth)Games played: 30Goals scored:14Expected goal tally: 16.026. Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur)Games played: 28Goals scored: 17Expected goal tally: 16.125. Sadio Mane (Liverpool)Games played: 34Goals scored: 22Expected goal tally: 16.787

Mane surpassed his expected goals tally

4. Jamie Vardy (Leicester)Games played: 33Goals scored: 18Expected goal tally: 19.123. Sergio Aguero (Man City)Games played: 38Goals scored: 21Expected goal tally: 19.95GETTY7

Aguero surpassed his expected goals tally

2. Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)Games played: 38Goals scored: 22Expected goal tally: 21.791. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal)Games played: 36Goals scored: 22Expected goal tally: 23.55

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We have fired up the famous talkSPORT.com super computer to predict the final league standings. Here's the predicted final 2018/19 Scottish Premiership table which should, of course, be taken with a pinch of salt… *And if you think you're better at predictions than the super computer, then give the talkSPORT predictor game a go!
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